Posted by: Karim Ali
Coffee with Karim
Clear Outlook + What to Watch
If you’re waiting for a headline that says “now is the perfect time,” you’ll be waiting forever. 2026 in Ottawa looks more like steady activity with competitive pockets; not a crash, nor a rocket ship.
Estimated read time: 6 minutes
TL;DR
The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25% on December 10, 2025, with the next decision on January 28, 2026.
CREA’s national forecast calls for sales +7.7% in 2026 and average price +3.2% (to $698,622). Use it as context, not certain or guaranteed outcome.
Ottawa finished 2025 more balanced and more “segmented”: condos are softer, freehold stays competitive when it’s turnkey and priced right.
1) The macro setup: why the BoC decision matters (even if you don’t care about economics)
The BoC rate hold at 2.25% basically tells the market: “we’re not panicking.”
That doesn’t mean your mortgage rate automatically does anything the next day. But it does shape:
- Buyer confidence (people stop freezing),
- Qualification (who can actually get approved),
- Competition (how many people are shopping at once).
The next scheduled decision is January 28, 2026, and the tone matters as much as the number.
What I’m watching (simple version):
- Are people’s payments getting easier or harder?
- Are buyers coming back all at once, or slowly?
- Is inventory staying “healthy,” or tightening again?
2) The Canada-wide outlook
CREA’s latest forecast says 2026 rebounds nationally:
- Sales +7.7% to 509,479, and
- Average price +3.2% to $698,622.
Two important caveats:
- That’s an average, not how your neighbourhood will perform.
- Ottawa doesn’t move like Vancouver or Calgary. It’s its own creature given our large public sector.
So I use this forecast to get an idea of the direction of travel of the market, rather than an exact prediction.
3) What that usually means in Ottawa
Ottawa ended 2025 on a clear theme: stability + more choice + property-type split.
Quick Ottawa snapshot (Dec 2025, OREB)
- Average sale price: $658,943 (about flat vs Dec 2024).
- Year-to-date active listings: +19% vs 2024, +45% vs 2023, +89% vs 2022.
- Months of inventory (overall): 4.3 (closer to long-term, pre-pandemic normal).
That’s the “why” behind my take: Ottawa has more inventory than the 2022–2023 era, so it can handle more buyers without instantly exploding.
It’s still important to note that attractive listings priced right likely still won’t sit on market.
4) The big story in 2026: the market stays segmented
OREB puts it plainly: different property types are behaving differently.
Here’s how that looks:
Freehold / single-family
- Detached was described as the “anchor” of stability.
- Still competitive when the home is turnkey, well-located, and priced properly.
Townhomes
- Still a major first-time buyer lane.
- Some pricing pressure showed up at the benchmark level, but not a collapse.
Condos (apartments)
- OREB called it the softest segment.
- Months of inventory was near 8 in December; meaning buyers have more leverage.
In short: 2026 isn’t one market in Ottawa, but rather multiple mini-markets running at different speeds.
5) So what do I think happens in 2026?
Base case (most likely): steady year + micro-bidding wars
- If rates stay stable or ease a bit, more buyers re-enter.
- Ottawa absorbs a lot of that demand because inventory is higher than a few years ago.
- The best homes still sell fast because everyone wants the same “A+” listings.
What counts as “A+” in real life:
- Normal layout, good light, no big-ticket surprises,
- Good location (or at least good for the price),
- Clean presentation,
- Priced around recent sales, rather than other listings.
Hot case: demand rushes back
- This happens if borrowing costs noticeably improve and people feel safe again.
- More offers,
- More bully offers,
- Less negotiating room on the good listings.
Cold case: confidence dips
If the economy gets shaky, buyers pause.
- More price reductions on “B/C” listings,
- More conditional offers,
- Condos and homes needing work feel it first.
6) Timing the market: what buyers + sellers get wrong (and what to do instead)
What buyers get wrong
They try to time rates and ignore competition.
If rates drop, more buyers qualify, and the market often gets busier. So you didn’t “win” by waiting—you just entered a more crowded room.
Better plan:
- Get fully ready (financing + realistic must-haves).
- Target listings where you can negotiate (stale listings, awkward presentation, overpriced that will correct).
- Move fast on the true A+ home when it shows up.
What sellers get wrong
They try to “test the market” with a price that’s aspirational, then get stuck chasing.
In a more balanced environment, buyers don’t need to overpay for “meh.” They just pick the better option down the street.
Better plan:
- Prep properly (light, paint touch-ups, small repairs, clean staging).
- Price to attract attention in week 1.
- If you’ve got an A+ home, you can still get strong results; but you have to earn it.
7) What to do with this info
If you’re buying in 2026
- Don’t wait for “perfect.” Get ready and be selective.
- Expect competition on turnkey freehold.
- On condos: use your leverage, but be picky about the building and the numbers.
If you’re selling in 2026
- Presentation matters more than it did in the frenzy years.
- Price like you want action, not compliments.
- If you’re a condo seller: you may need sharper pricing and cleaner packaging than freehold sellers.
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